Understanding Xi Jinping’s Dilemma
As the inauguration of Donald Trump approaches on January 20, 2025, political analysts are predicting that Chinese President Xi Jinping may reject the invitation to attend. The current geopolitical climate and the competitive nature of U.S.-China relations make this a pivotal moment for both countries.
Trump’s Invitation and Its Context
In a recent announcement, the incoming press secretary for Trump confirmed that an invitation had indeed been extended to Xi. However, the Chinese embassy in Washington has remained silent on the matter, leaving many to speculate about Xi’s potential response. The implications of this guest list on bilateral relations cannot be understated.
Risks in Accepting the Invitation
Experts suggest that attending the inauguration could be politically risky for Xi. As Danny Russel, a former high-ranking U.S. official, pointed out, the image of Xi sitting outdoors among U.S. lawmakers while Trump delivers an inaugural address could undermine his status as a world leader. There is considerable concern about whether attending would send the wrong message about China’s position relative to the U.S.
The Role of Dignity in Diplomacy
Chinese officials have historically placed a strong emphasis on dignity and respect in diplomatic encounters. Yun Sun, director at the Stimson Center, highlights that it is unlikely that Beijing would want to risk Xi’s reputation by exposing him to a potentially hostile environment without the formalities typically associated with state visits.
The Taiwan Factor
Moreover, the anticipated presence of representatives from Taiwan, such as their diplomatic envoy to the U.S. who attended President Biden’s inauguration in 2021, adds another layer of complexity. Given China’s stance on Taiwan, such a scenario is fraught with tension and could complicate matters further.
Possible Fallout from Tariffs
Trump’s aggressive trade policies remain another point of contention. With threats of implementing tariffs up to 60% on Chinese goods, it would be politically embarrassing for Xi to attend, should those policies be enacted. According to Sun, such a public relations misstep would not be taken lightly in China.
Looking Ahead: Future of U.S.-China Relations
Despite these risks, some analysts believe that personal meetings may still occur soon after the inauguration as Trump prefers face-to-face interactions with fellow leaders. Xi’s team may believe they can negotiate more effectively in such forums. Yet, tensions are expected to mount with Trump’s return to office, especially with his cabinet selections favoring a more aggressive stance toward China.
China’s Response and Next Steps
As the global landscape evolves, China appears to be taking a cautious approach, opting for a ‘wait-and-see’ strategy regarding U.S. policy after the inauguration. They remain prepared to counter any aggressive moves by the Trump administration. It is evident that the invitation, while seemingly friendly, does not negate the potential for hostile policies.
